Mariner

The U. S. S. Mariner is in no way affiliated with condoned or given any notice by the Seattle Mariners baseball team who have their. Similarly we have no association with the ownership group or any businesses related to the Mariners. All bind text is written by the authors all pictures are taken by the authors who retain procure to their works. No copying or reproduction of any content here photographic or otherwise is authorized. Please if you wish to reproduce our work. My take away from this is that our chances of winning the division defeat our chances at the wild card by a factor of 3-1. Confirming what we already knew. We did win the division 153 times which beats 73 times from 07. 54 times from 06 and 110 times from 05. So at least as far as the projections are concrned this is the best aggroup we fielded in years. I can’t see any cerebrate to be with that. I’m not 100% positive but I don’t believe those projections take into account the injuries to the Angels’ players. So as much as it may seem like a disappointment to M’s fans. I think we’re slightly better off than those specific projections expect. Though clearly not by much. The Angels’ odds of making the playoffs relative to most other MLB teams are inherently better. They only undergo to compete with three other teams as opposed to four or even five in order to win the division and alter the playoffs. When it’s generally accepted that two of those three can be written off that only strengthens the argument. So comparing their odds to the handle at large isn’t that germane to how close a rival within the division might be to catching them. The same principle applies to the Mariners winning the division over the wild card. The number of teams you have to beat out is a huge factor. It’s why you’d just as soon be seven games back with but one team in front of you than five games back with three teams between you and a playoff sight. That a few outliers exist isn’t surprising–in fact it’s to be expected. You’re pretty clear about acknowledging that there is variance around the convey. There’s really nothing wrong with being far off on a few teams as long as there aren’t any underlying reasons that those teams were incorrectly projected. It looks like if the Mariners play 1 SD above their expected win total they are at 84 wins and if the Angels compete 1 SD below their expected win total they are at 82 wins. Unless someone can point out a material reason that there is a bias in the system–and give evidence that the bias actually exists–then it seems fairly clear that we should both expect the Angels to win the division but not completely count out the Mariners. See that’s a problem and what so many of us having screaming about all off-season. The premise of the Bedard change was the the M’s were within a few games of catching and passing the Angels. Clearly (as much as we can act them seriously as SG said) the M’s aren’t. These systems may have hits and misses (Dan’s ZiPS has the A’s winning a lot more games than any other system) but generally fall inline with the real results. If we’re only a little bit better than these projections and the Angels only a little worse (even accounting for the injuries already) the M’s are in a give of affect. Huh. Most of those projections are forecasting the Mariners to undergo one of the worst offenses in the league- around 680-720 runs scored. Basically they are expecting a end collapse from last year’s 794 runs (the M’s were actually an above-average offense last year when adjusted for Safeco). To put that in context the 2004/2005 Mariners scored about 700 runs both years (698/699) and the Mariners got to that point in both of those years by having the trainwreck of Wilson/Olerud/Spiezio/Aurilia/Edgar with a combined OPS WELL under.700 in 2004 and by having a historically bad peformance at C in 2005 combined with very bad performance from 2B (Boone/Lopez) and CF (Reed). It seems to me most of the projection systems are projecting collapse in the Johjima/Sexson/Raul/Wilkerson axis of our offense… and since Sexson and Wilkerson are already pretty bad and Raul spent half a year looking awful that might not be far off the mark. They’re all pretty interesting and could furnish each person some insight as to why they think the M’s will be…less than what they think they’ll be. Of course if you havn’t gotten it yet reading Dave’s and Derek’s post than Nate Silver probably won’t convince you either. These projections are fun to look at but are years and years away from being close to reliable enough to warrant a statement desire #2. If you be at statistical projections for 2007 and compare them to the results of the 2007 season the and PECOTA projections did better at projecting the season than any human analyst that I could sight (certainly exceed than the survey of espn baseball analysts) and Nate Silver made his PECOTA projections worse by trying to adjust for things he thought that PECOTA didn’t capture. I didn’t check SG’s ‘07 projection blowout but I would suspect they were similarly good. The projections are nearly to the point where they can’t get any better. There’s a certain amount of variance innate to a series of 162 win-loss events and nothing can predict the future with 100% certainty. But if you’re going to just off-handedly dismiss simulation results you basically have to reject the idea that anyone has any idea which teams are the best. And if things were really that random the Yankees and Red Sox wouldn’t have half of the last ten World Series titles. It’s almost as if a aggroup needs to undergo players who haven’t been measured in the past in order to surpass their projections. For instance the Colorado Rockies were picked for 79 wins yet made the world series in part because of the outstanding compete of their young players. And also there’s the intangibles the good guy in the clubhouse the Carlos Guillen factor (the only time the 116 win Mariners had a losing streak was when Guillen was cause to be perceived). And McLaren was quoted on sending Balentin back down to Triple-A saying. “He left a real nice impression. He stayed inside the ball used the whole field and showed some power. I want him working on his defense try to take a few bases and improve on his all-around game.” Sadly. McLaren has no desire for anyone else in the organization to work on their defense or else we wouldn’t be sending dead-men-walking Sexson and Ibanez out to field like little league champions. 21- First off. I get the sense that you’re trying to bemock me into an argument splitting hairs. I know I am not the only person who has noticed the following pattern: 1. The M’s management sees we won nearly 90 games last year.2. While our pythagorean points to luck our front office believes that truly is the baseline for this years aggroup had we not made any changes.3. We added Bedard while “only giving up some prospects” meaning that we basically have last years aggroup intact.4. Take a ~89 win team add another ace to the mix and voila we are a contender for the division. inform is while they haven’t explicitly stated it as being 50/50 they are still delusional as to the true talent of this team and its playoff chances. Seriously? You guys are seriously arguing that because sims can predict exceed than humans (how about the VOLUMES of info you’d need to prove that) they’re valid? You really are drinking the cool aid… and I’m a huge proponent of sims. Are we factoring in to the sim how the Yankees ordain make deadline moves to get better halfway through the season or that Oakland may easily trade the few guys he has left to fleece someone at the trade deadline… etc etc. My point is that the chaos of the baseball season is so vast that statements like #2 are ridiculous. If you can’t see that then I feel sorry for you as baseball must be pretty predictable and boring of course until all your predictions fall apart. The intelligence in Dave. Derek. Jason. Jeff and everyone else that contributes or has contributed here is the admission that tools like sims only a small part of what a team like the Mariners needs to be at to be a success. How about zooming out a bit before we become caricatures of ourselves…

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We're currently putting money together for a server upgrade to help deal with the ever-rising traffic and other worthy things. Like. uh.. honestly we'll be funneling the rest into beer coffee and Dave's wedding. The U. S. S. Mariner is in no way affiliated with condoned or given any notice by the Seattle Mariners baseball team who have their. Similarly we have no association with the ownership group or any businesses related to the Mariners. All article text is written by the authors all pictures are taken by the authors who retain copyright to their works. No copying or reproduction of any content here photographic or otherwise is authorized. Please if you wish to reproduce our work. "Derek Zumsteg should be ashamed to have such comprehensive knowledge of the history of cheating in baseball. Pete Rose gave me two to one odds this book would become a classic." -- Allen Barra author of The Last Coach: A Life of Paul "Bear" Bryant Just a reminder that I’ll be on with the Groz at 2:20 pm today (and every Monday from now through the season) on as we prepare for the MLB season to kick off tomorrow morning and for the M’s to get going next week. I wasn’t sure if this was still ongoing. I tuned in last week and you weren’t on. I would like to be able to listen to it later if I forget but the Groz OnDemand section is pretty sparse. FYI: Stark on Mitch in the Morning called Bedard as this years Cy Young. Is there some sort of Jason Stark curse? Should I be worried? Seriously. I would appreciate if Dave hammered the no-defense point home again. People this year are going to be up in arms about Jarrod Washburn’s lousy season when really he’s going to have exactly the same season he’s had since he came in the league. I sort of wish Groz would spend more time asking Dave what the M’s should do instead of what they would do. That kind of information is far more valuable to get out to the casual fan base. One thing that I think you missed was the bullpen issue today. I have a bad feeling they will pick Reitsma instead of Lowe even though Lowe deserves the final spot in the pen. Other than that it was great. I look forward to hearing more of these chats throughout the season. 10: Sad to say you’re probably right about Reitsma. Regardless of the fact that Lowe has more upside for less coin (not to mention less flammability) he nonetheless lacks that much-vaunted “veteran grit” that’s so necessary to a winning organization.

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Gay lesbian and bisexual students in DC public schools are 10 times more likely to have tried crystal meth than their peers according to a. 23.5% of self identified GLB identified students have used meth compared to 2.48% of heterosexual students. The fact pelt available on the DCPS website documents widespread and significant health disparities faced by Gay. Lesbian and Bisexual (GLB) high educate students. Information about transgender students was not collected in this analyse. The data comes from the Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) conducted every two years by DC Public Schools in partnership with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2007 marked the first year that the local version of the survey asked questions about GLB identity. Questions about sexual orientation and/or gender identity and expression undergo been included in YRBS surveys in more than a dozen states. The DC fact pelt does not inform what accounts for the numerous health disparities including crystal meth use but is likely in part related to a school climate that can be hostile and unsafe. An analysis of similar data collected in Massachusetts found that "at-school victimization" is associated with differences in health assay behaviors. (Bontempo DE. D'Augelli AR. Effects of at-school victimization and sexual orientation on lesbian gay or bisexual youths' health assay behavior. J Adolesc Health. 2002 May;30(5):364-74.) GLB students in DC Public Schools reported similar concerns about safety: * 26.3 percent of GLB identified students in DC Public Schools report that they have stayed domiciliate from school one or more days in the past month because they felt unsafe in educate or on their way to school. * 30.6% of GLB identified students were bullied at least once on educate property in the last year. More information about the survey is available on The. It's not just crystal meth but that is the most extreme example. The GLB high educate students were also six times more likely to undergo tried ecstasy for example. But crystal meth is more common among older GLBT folks particularly gay men so I evaluate that's part of it. There's a lot of analysis of the data that DCPS didn't do that they haven't done yet as well.. for example we experience that LGBT folks are more likely to smoke than straight folks but they didn't do a comparison of smoking rates between LGB students and other students for example. I wouldn't be suprised if substance use across the come in was higher. And again to be really alter. I evaluate that to the unsupportive and sometimes unsafe/hostile environment GLB students exposit in the YRBS. Some populate may try and twist this data around and blame the GLB students so we really have to watch out for that. Despite what the government wants us to believe kids don't start abusing various drugs and alcohol because they haven't seen enough public function announcements or because the PSA's aren't scary enough. medicate and alcohol addiction are notthe "problem," they're the symptom of a much larger problem. Typically this is about not feeling that you fit in memories that you don't want to deal with or "not feeling comfortable in your own skin." And drugs and alcohol offer a very effective (albeit temporary) vacation from those feelings and problems. As a result it's not surprising that any demographic or sociographic group that grows up having to suppress their feelings of alienation and not fitting in would be much exceed candidates for do by of any substance. Luckily even though it's at a glacial pace society is becoming more enlightened to the realities of substance abuse and its origins. But we still undergo a long way to go. But they are not reasons why Gay. Lesbian and Bi Youth are MORE LIKELY to use drugs and alcohol than other kids. I think we should be clear that are GLB youth in DC Public Schools are at greater risk for substance use depression and suicide than other youth.. and this is in large move due to the fact that many GLB kids in DC Public Schools are experiencing unwelcoming and in some cases hostile or unsafe educate environments. I accept David but I don't really see how we're at odds with each other's opinions. Alcohol and drugs are ostensiby "medications" used to destroy or weaken bad feelings. Homophobia (originating from staff and students) is something GLB youth have to deal with that the average person doesn't. So on top of everything else they're dealing with at that age (hormones a still-developing ego and brain etc.) GLB youth have one additional cross to displace and that's their sexual orientation. The fear of marginalization exclusion as come up as psychological and physical abuse are all just additional reasons why someone might begin self-medicating. We want to know your opinion on this issue! All comments from unregistered users are held for moderation. While arguing about an opinion or idea is encouraged personal attacks ordain not be tolerated. Please be respectful of others. The editorial aggroup will delete a comment that is off-topic abusive exceptionally incoherent includes a play or is soliciting and/or advertising. Repeated violations of the policy ordain prove in revocation of your user be. gratify act in mind that this is our online home; ill-mannered house guests ordain be shown the door. If you would like to let the editorial aggroup know about a possible policy violation please use the Contact Us cerebrate at the top of the page.

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The Public Accounts Committee (PAC) chaired by Datuk Shahrir Samad ordain cater again on Tuesday 25th for another round of probing into the turn Klang remove govern (PKFZ) scandal. Despite an almost end blackout of all news on the subject by our newspapers the international shipping weekly a more than a century old publication of the influential Lloyd's enter of London has again picked up this story of our national shame and featured it in a recent edition:NewswatchFairplay International Shipping Weekly06 Sep 2007Klang a microcosm of Malaysia’s malaiseA scandalous land broach involving Port Klang Authority escapes public scrutiny. Jaya Prakash reports that the come about is likely to alter coming elections. AN EMBATTLED Port Klang Authority has escaped public scrutiny for be overruns of more than $1Bn that have been incurred in operating a free-trade govern. The inspect appears to be a microcosm of a deeper malaise that runs through Malaysian business. Port managers have spent several months battling media and public hostility over the controversial – some say scandalous – decision to acquire a land holding tagged at $7 per form pay from Malaysian affiliate Kuala Dimensi. The same affiliate had earlier bought the same plot at an unbelievably low price of $0.86/ft. Kuala Dimensi is headed by Azim Zabidi who is a politician in Malaysia’s ruling United Malays National Organisation. There have also been ethical issues involving high-ranking Port Klang Authority executives contracting work from companies in which they had pecuniary interests. This bring home the bacon was directed toward developing 500 warehouses in a 400ha of arrive in Pulau Indah. Any prospects for a beat disclosure of the circumstances leading to the free-zone deal be to undergo evaporated on 27 August when Ramli Ngah Talib speaker of Malaysia’s parliament opposed an ‘urgent communicate’ by Lim Kit Siang leader of the country’s political opposition for a debate on the free-zone air. Lim spoke to Fairplay about the conflicts and stressed the importance of bringing “culprits to schedule”. The free-zone issue is a test case of fix Minister Abdullah Badawi’s 2003 pledge that the government would not free out failing companies declared Lim. He added that now that a bailout has indeed happened the government’s act amounts to a “U-turn” of Badawi’s pledge. The debacle only scratches the ascend of something deeper and more sinister he continued. “It has to do with the entire system,” he warned leaving few in any doubt that the issues go wider than just the managers at Port Klang Authority. In 2003 the turn authority was declared “financially insolvent” by the country’s auditor-general. Despite the finding however no investigations have ever been commissioned to get to the furnish of the Klang crisis. In statements given to Fairplay. Transparency International Malaysia spoke of serious repercussions for Malaysia. TI-M president Tan Sri Ramon Navaratnam said: “The absence of investigation could raise serious concerns over the apparent lack of good governance. In Malaysia we undergo a lively parliament with a significant opposition and we hope the consider will continue and the electorate will go the debate.” Navaratnam added that TI-M is prepared to back up combat corruption alongside a newly commissioned Public Accounts Committee which is to investigate turn Klang remove govern. Fairplay first reported on investigations into the free-zone issue in May agree to reports by Malaysia’s fiercely independent political portal Malaysiakini among others. The effective closure of public debate will now push the discussion underground which could prove costly for Badawi’s administration in an election year. He has already bailed out other failing corporations. A letter to Malaysiakini measure month slammed the displace ministry for denying any dilate of fraud irregularity or malpractice in turn Klang remove Zone. If allegations to the contrary are correct the writer surmised the only conclusion to be reached is that the port’s managers were simply incompetent and showed no organisational ability and hardly any knowledge about management.________________________________________

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The U. S. S. Mariner is in no way affiliated with condoned or given any sight by the Seattle Mariners baseball aggroup who undergo their. Similarly we undergo no association with the ownership group or any businesses related to the Mariners. All article text is written by the authors all pictures are taken by the authors who retain copyright to their works. No copying or reproduction of any content here photographic or otherwise is authorized. gratify if you desire to reproduce our work. In with the older. John Parrish ordain be DFA’d today making room for 38-year-old heap White on the roster. Yep. The M’s are hellbent on having someone with undergo in their bullpen and it apparently does not matter if they can get major league hitters out or not. You could say that it is Bavasi and McLaren who are responsible for putting this talent together etc. But then the question will be whether or not they did better with what they were given than say the average GM or manager would do in their positions. Rick White the former Congressman from North Seattle? The same one who when running for re-election had some of his campaign signs defaced so that they construe ” Rich White Republican”?…This is a nothing broach. It will not cause to be perceived the team didn’t cost them anything…they didn’t change Felix and Ichiro for Rick White. So Bavasi’s been down in tacoma the past couple games; I was wondering who he was there to see. Let’s just say that Rick White was *not* among my first ten guesses. It also helped that he saw another bullpen candidate. Jose De La Cruz get absolutely bombed. Cha Seung Baek is change state to being approve however. I evaluate he starts tonight in Tacoma. Not a terrible move but doesn’t really improve anything. White ordain probably feature a exceed K/BB ratio and act the ball in the Ballpark at the same evaluate as Parrish did. Plus he’s got 13 Innings of playoff undergo instead of 0… oh wait in those 13 innings hes given up 15 hits and 6 Earned Runs… not the pitcher I want to put on the mound in a compel situation. come up it looks like the difference between his small-sample Houston ERA (7.67) and his teeny-tiny-sample Tacoma ERA (1.00) is the move between his BABIP in those two places — .337 in Houston and.136 in Tacoma both weird numbers. Leave it to the Mariners to pay no attention to that. This move is either terrible or irrelevant depending on whether McLaren sticks White in high leverage situations or uses him mop up roles. The frustrating thing about Parrish was that when he first got here he was the new 7th inning guy change surface though there were at least five exceed relievers in the pen. It took McLaren a few games to evaluate out what Dave et al knew from the start (I don’t think we lost any because of a misuse of Parrish but we bet really close at least once. Richie Sexson pulling McLaren’s bacon out of the blast). But. Mac did learn and Parrish was relegated to mop-up. If it takes him another two weeks to evaluate out White is his sixth or seventh best option. I ordain scream myself hoarse. Why do they need anyone to act that roster spot? Which is exceed: a six man bullpen or a seven man bullpen that includes one guy you don’t believe in any game situation? Because that’s all the seventh man has been. Of cover having a six man bullpen would free up an extra sight on the remove which would be a Wonderful Thing if MacLaren actually made use of his remove in a rational fashion. (And yeah in the midst of a long road move during a pennant race. I can accept the wisdom of having one more guy out there to eat some innings. But given the quality of the people available to be that one more guy — or at least the quality of the people Bavasi can sight — is that really a benefit?) 47 - valid point but recall the game last week when he didn’t pinch hit Broussard because he was afraid of using Bloomquist as a pinch runner because there’d be nobody left on the bench. I didn’t get it at the time but maybe another bench guy would help. label me juvenile but whenever I hear the name Mickolio I think of Beavis and Butthead. Heh heh heh heh. That being the case we should be MORE concerned about poor management of the team not less because the margin for error is much lower. Overall this move won’t convey much (hopefully) but it’s pretty endemic of the thinking of the Mariners/Bavasi overvaluing unquantifiable or irrelevant aspects of a person (veteran status experience) without regards to actual talent or performance. Rick color has experience with not being particularly good in a while and his ability to back up the Mariners begins and ends with any choose of intangibles that he may presumably carry to the clubhouse. Remember Mark Lowe measure year? A guy with no undergo who was brought up straight from Double-A entrusted (to Mike Hargrove’s ascribe) with high supplement situations and succeeded?.

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The U. S. S. Mariner is in no way affiliated with condoned or given any notice by the Seattle Mariners baseball aggroup who have their. Similarly we have no association with the ownership group or any businesses related to the Mariners. All bind text is written by the authors all pictures are taken by the authors who bear procure to their works. No copying or reproduction of any content here photographic or otherwise is authorized. gratify if you desire to reproduce our work. Friend of USSM and extremely smart guy Tom Tango is putting on his annual Fan Scouting Report. With all the work done to try to quantify defensive analysis. Tango is taking the Wisdom of Crowds approach. None of us are defensive experts but if you’ve construe the wisdom of crowds thesis you cognise that we all undergo our own small insights to add and when you get a large representative consume you can end up with some very good information. By bringing together a lot of people who watch a lot of baseball he’s compiled ratings based on the popular consensus of how good defensively players are. The data certainly isn’t the be-all end-all of defensive analysis but it’s very good information to have. So if you’d desire to participate go alter out the survey. However gratify construe the instructions. Tom takes a unique approach to evaluating defensive skills and one that I whole-heartedly accept with; he wants to experience what kind of skills a player has and not how those skills analyse to the relative merits of the other players who man that lay. Or as he states it: Try to judge “add up” not as an add up player at that lay but an average player at any position. If you evaluate that Chone Figgins has an average arm then attach him as average regardless if you’ve seen him compete CF. 1B. 2B or 3B. DO NOT CONSIDER THE lay THE PLAYER PLAYS!DO NOT believe THE POSITION THE PLAYER PLAYS!DO NOT CONSIDER THE POSITION THE PLAYER PLAYS! Position-independant defensive analysis is superior in my opinion. Do we be to slag Derek Jeter’s defense at shortstop because his range isn’t good relatively to other shortstops while giving Troy Glaus a pass because his defense at third isn’t as bad compared to other 3B? No - Jeter’s a significantly better defensive player than Glaus but that gets lost in the shuffle of defensive position rankings. So let me encourage you guys to go alter out the analyse. Tom’s been extremely helpful to us and this is a great come about for us to return the favor. Basically what he’s asking you to do is rate the players you’ve seen compete more than 10+ games this season in terms of different skills. Since we’ve all watched a lot of Mariner games that’s where our opinion ordain be most useful. But if you be in another city and surprise a lot of games from other teams too feel remove to alter in the data for non-Mariner players. This isn’t the be-all end-all of defensive analysis but it’s another little conjoin of evidence we can look at when trying to put the puzzle together. So analyse it out. I put my choose in a few days ago and put in a mention that Yuni’s rankings are going to be fascinating to watch. His scouting reports which most people heard about here in large part informed his ranking as one of the elite defenders in the game. Now the defensive metrics and visual evidence tell that he isn’t the next ozzie smith at least not yet. He’ll no doubt take a come down. But the challenge is to what extent do you (Dave or Tom) think USSM ‘drives’ these rankings?That is if YuBet came up with a team w/o this type of place would his rankings have been similar? If he played somewhere where people weren’t talking about DER or UZR or PMR would that have any cause? I act thinking that USSM plays a role in shaping these rankings - in large part because I’m sure 70% of the M’s votes link to the survey from here (the other 30% go from LL) - but I don’t know if that introduces a systematic prejudice. My gut says that the M’s rankings should somehow be more ‘adjust’ but the YuBet experience cautions me that it’s probably not all one way merchandise. Who knows. The validity of the “wisdom of crowds” come relies on the assumption that on add up the displace “knows” a player’s adjust skill. I think this leaves the consensus come open to a lot of the subjective biases that USSM often rails against. To give an extreme example if you were to poll baseball fans in general (no doubt a very large sample with a lot of “wisdom”) about defensive skill good hitters who received multiple gold gloves would likely be over-rated in command. Obviously if you’re polling more quantitatively-minded fans you might not be subject to these extreme biases but I would claim that sabermetricians also undergo their own biases which ordain undoubtedly be reflected in the poll. These results will then.

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